Drama in the Weather

I suppose the world of weather is not unlike the rest of the world.  There are always people ready to criticize, ready to pounce on an error, ready to believe that their own knowledge or skill is superior to that of another, and that others don't know what they are talking about.  Maybe it is just a sign of the times, or of the upcoming generation, but it feels like that this is getting worse and worse as time goes along. 

In the weather world, this sort of criticism is far more critical.  People get upset because a forecast did not occur exactly as predicted in their driveway.  It doesn't matter that the forecast was right for the region and occurred exactly as expected, if that rain did not fall on their yard, you are an idiot.  Most of these types of people really don't know anything about the weather to begin with.  They don't understand that predicting the future isn't exactly easy.

The ones that are worst though are those folks who think they know something.  Well, they do know something about weather and have experience and training, but, they don't seem to think they have the same predictive limitations that face us all. 

About a week and a half ago, for example, someone had made a report to the local weather service office of observing a rotating wall cloud.  Another amateur meteorologist jumped all over the report and ridiculed the person because they thought the conditions were such that this would not happen.  They figured it had to be some idiot who had no clue what he was looking at made an erroneous report.  Oh and did the people pile on their FB post all piling on the stupid person who made that report.  There was one problem with this...  The person who made the report was correct.  I had observed and filmed it prior to the report. 

There also seems to be a rigidity in folks that expects other people to be perfect.  Good example happened to me last night.  I was going through weather data for the upcoming weekend and based on what I had observed and read put out my forecast.  Within a number of minutes I was getting more feedback on that one post than I had gotten in weeks of correct forecasts. One of the pages I was getting info from had not fully updated their information when I viewed it so I saw two days of weather information that was supposed to be one.  It was changed after I had viewed and gone over the info.  Ooops, I goofed  (or they did), and the forecast 3 days out was wrong. 

That one minor and correctable error brought people out of the woodwork with criticism.  Why?  People are so quick to criticize others while excusing themselves.  People need to recognize their own imperfection and extend the same courtesy of excuse to others that they claim for themselves.  It is a principle that extends beyond weather and into every facet of life.

Jesus Christ had put it this way in Luke 6:31 And as ye would that men should do to you, do ye also to them likewise.  I don't think most people like to be criticized, or made fun of, or have the inevitable mistakes pounced on.  I think we would like people to gently point out and/or correct our errors, be forgiving of the gaffs we may make, and to be praised for the good work we do.  What a monumental world changing thing it would be if people would follow that one simple verse.

El Reno Now

May 31st, 2013....  On this day about a year ago we had a tragic first in the weather community.  We had 4 storm chasers killed by a violent tornado.  There were a number of others, including members of the media that were lucky to escape with their lives.  3 of those who perished on that day were among the most well known and respected people in the storm chase world.

In my heart, I knew that eventually this was going to happen.  I've been chasing storms myself for almost 3 decades.  When I started out there were only a handful of chasing enthusiasts.  There were some science types out there like Howard Bluestein, or Bob Jones (who was somewhat the character in Twister was patterned after, and certainly Dorothy after their Toto.)  There were a couple other chasers of note during that era such as Tim Marshall  who is also a structural engineer and studied tornado damage or Warren Faidly  who was a pioneer in chasing as a business.  A hobbyist/spotter such as myself was far and few between.

Back then, You had to really understand a storm and be able to really recognize the visual cues in the environment.  You had to have a feel for where the prime environments were and be able to make a forecast with limited information.  Once on the road, information was hard to come by.  No laptops or cell phones.  You did have the advantage of having the storms practically to yourself though.

The Twister movie kicked up a bit of interest in the hobby, and the field of meteorology.  There was a slight increase in the numbers of folks getting out chasing, and the technology was just beginning to become more useful on the road.  A few "tornado tour" groups started.  Still, it seemed there was plenty of room for this influx of new chasers in their various formats. 

Most chasers I knew back then were the cautious sort that took their safety and that of the public quite seriously.  Many of us did dual work with the authorities in various ways.  Many were trained spotters, first responders, researchers, or media.  Everyone was pretty low profile.  Ham antennas were a common sight, but that was about it.  Rules of the road were responsibly followed and no one interfered with authorities.  Many of us were in fact welcomed by them.

I remember shortly after the May 3. 1999 Moore Oklahoma tornado, I saw a video by what I said was some local yahoo dingbat who was being reckless and irresponsible putting himself in danger in front of the tornado and crying help like a scared baby from under an overpass.  He was fortunate that tornado moved slightly and spared him.  That dingbat was Reed Timmer who would go on to be one of the most popular chasers with a reckless style of getting dangerously close and even into tornadoes and screaming like child in his videos.  Ten years later, popularized by a cable TV show, Reed became a catalyst for every wanabee storm chaser to go out and flaunt traffic laws and put their lives in danger by seeing how close one could get to a tornado.

With the right combination of exposure and technology becoming so easy that anyone with a cell phone could be directed to a tornado. Groups of ego and adrenaline driven young folks could now paint their vehicles as outlandishly as possible and stick a bunch of flashy lights all over it and thought themselves to be somebody.  Of course the media did not help by egging this sort of behavior on by putting them and their footage on the news.  


Meanwhile, those of us who had been at it for years were shaking our heads, very concerned about what might happen with all this recklessness.

In April 2012, a storm in Kansas produced a large wedge tornado, and created a circus that began to reverberate around the nation.  Thousands of chasers had converged on this one storm.  The recklessness, rudeness, over inflated egos, ignoring of traffic laws, disrespect to authorities, all combined to set off serious questions and even damaged the relationships many of us had had over the years with authorities.  


Instead of being seen as partners in public safety, storm chasers were now seen as a public menace. 

It was then that I confided with friends that it was only a matter of time before someone dies.  There was too much traffic, too many risks being taken, and no regard for safety. 

I lived the scenario a year later in Oklahoma in April 2013.  I appeared top be quietly on a tornadic storm when I saw the armada rolling in.  I was driving up into town and all the roadsides were filled with cars.  All the side roads were filled with cars.  There was a weak F0 tornado just to the south.  I had just passed Reed Timmer and the media circus when the circulation turned north.  There was nowhere to go.  Cars began screeching out into the roadway as the circulation approached.  Horns were blaring.  I was stuck behind the TIV vehicle, and the circulation passed over the top of us.  I realized that was likely how it would happen.

Following and watching live the El Reno tornado from home, and seeing how that played out, it was very similar to my April experience.  The tornado changed track, turned north and overtook storm chasers who were unprepared for the sudden change in direction and size.  The sudden change and expansion took many off guard who barely made it out alive.  Unfortunately 4 did not. 

While some chasers took the hard lessons learned to heart and have amended their strategies, others have not.  I have seen several videos in 2014 where chasers drove into tornadoes and are lucky they did not suffer the same fate.  I still see them on videos disobeying traffic laws and making dumb maneuvers.  I still see them with over painted light bar filled vehicle.

Maybe after all these years I just got old and skeert, but I don't want to see anyone else die or get hurt.  I don't want to see the relationship between chaser and the authorities deteriorate to the point where they will only allow government licensed chasers.  I'd like everyone to enjoy a good storm, but be safe in doing so, and to be looking out for the safety of the public at large, both in the path of the storm and in the chase environment.  Am I asking too much? 

Weather of Biblical Proportions

When one brings up Weather of Biblical proportions, what is the first thing that comes to mind?  Disaster.  We immediately think about huge floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, hurricanes, and such things.  We immediately begin thinking in terms of God’s judgment upon mankind for whatever wrongs man has done.  While certainly there is some truth to that, it is certainly not the whole story, or really even a majority of the story.

 
Let me ask you, who was it that created weather?  God, of course.  After 6 days of creation. God declared it all good.  This included the weather.  God had created the perfect environment for his creations to flourish in.  The temperatures were just right; the atmosphere, just right, the moisture, just right; everything was perfect.  So, what happened?  Why isn’t the weather always perfect today?

The fall of man, that is what happened.  When Adam and Eve sinned, the environment changed.  New kinds of plants were introduced and a change in relationship between man and beast occurred.  The soil no longer brought forth its fruit abundantly, but man had to work at it.  This would also indicate that the weather had changed slightly.  The moisture was not quite so perfect, the temperatures not quite so perfect.  It was still pretty good, but it had lost perfection along with man.

Over time, mankind became more and more corrupt.  His desires were no longer for the Lord.  The stench of this corruption rose up to the Lord, and the Lord decided to make some changes.  We must thank him daily that he changed his mind about destroying it all permanently, and saved Noah and his family to begin anew.  We know the story of the flood, but the side story was the major renovation of the weather.  God created what we now know today as the weather cycle.

This new weather system was really in line with where mankind was spiritually.  What was once a perfect weather environment now became a far less than perfect weather environment, but still perfectly capable of sustaining life…. most of the time.  It was also full of a lot of pitfalls and destructiveness as well; very much like our own natures.  The fickleness of this new weather regime would be used to drive our history and destinies.

The history of mankind since the days of Noah have been filled with weather driven activites.  Famines and drought have oft been the causes of great wars and/or migrations of people.   Cold has driven people into searches for new lands as well.  Victories and defeats of armies have been determined by what the weather was like.  Despite all the tumult and chaos associated with weather, we have many, many, days of beautiful weather.  

 
While we blame God for all of the disasters wrought by weather and look for signs of His return based on outrageous weather, but, do we ever really thank him for all of the wonderful and beautiful days that we do have? Do we thank him that He has kept weather in check enough that His creation can be sustained and we can enjoy it?  The true weather of Biblical proportions is that He has kept the weather in such a way that His creation can still thrive and survive, and be blessed.

 

Difficult Questions

I'm sure that by now that we all have heard about the horrible tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma on Monday, May 22nd.  It was a disaster beyond which words can adequately describe.  It hits me especially hard because I am a storm chaser.  It hits me double because I am a Christian.  Why do these parts of me make it especially hard?  Let me explain.

As a storm chaser, I have a strong understanding of storms.  I understand the ingredients that go together that can produce storms of this magnitude.  Unfortunately we cannot predict exactly where these storms will strike and why one storm goes completely nuts like this while another doesn't.  We can, and did accurately predict the general area days in advance.  Still, people died.  Many were injured.  It is frustrating.


As a Christian, it becomes a little more complicated.  We have people asking why God would allow something like this to happen.  Why would little children be allowed to die such a horrible death?  It becomes further complicated when we have some Christians saying that this is Gods judgement upon us for our sinful ways.  These are hard questions and ideas. There are no easy answers. 


As a storm chaser, you look back at what could have been done differently to prevent loss of life and property in the future.  We look at our forecasting, trying to learn how to better predict such an event to give more time in our warnings and more precise predictions as to where they might occur.  We look at building construction, what can be done to better withstand such storms.  We look at shelters, and why people may not have them.  We look for ways we can get people to better respond when a warning is put out.

As a Christian, you have to look at those tough questions you might get asked.  How do you respond to a person who lost a loved one who asks you why this had to happen?  And how do you do so in a way that doesn't turn them away from God, but instead, draws them to the Lord? 

In both arenas I find myself in, the tragedy presents some very heavy issues.  I can look to the science to learn how to help minimize the affects of such an event in the future, and I can look to scripture to help me find comfort and strength in dealing with what has happened.

Romans 15:15 Rejoice with them that do rejoice, and weep with them that weep.  I think that is what is appropriate at the moment.  There will be a time for dealing with the deeper issues. 

Ecclesiastics 3:1 To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:

2 A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;

3 A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;

4 A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;

5 A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;

6 A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;

7 A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;

8 A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.

The Weather and Spiritual Truth

Mathew 16:1 The Pharisees also with the Sadducees came, and tempting desired him that he would shew them a sign from heaven.

² He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red.
³ And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?

In the bible, weather is sometimes used as a tool for teaching truths.   People in Biblical times were far more agrarian people, farmers, shepherds, and such.  As such they were very in tune with the weather and what they see in the weather as related to future events.  Jesus here uses something most everyone could identify with in the weather to relate to a spiritual matter.

In Luke 8 we have the story of Jesus and his disciples crossing the sea, with Jesus sleeping, when a storm arose.  Again the conditions of the weather were used to tell us something of a spiritual matter.  The storm was so bad that the disciples were afraid of death.  In the story we get two great truths, one about faith, and one about the power of the Lord over the conditions of the weather.

In Mathew 7 we are told about two houses and what happens to them when a storm hits.  One stands and the other falls based on where the houses were built.  It is yet another example of the Bible using weather as a teaching tool to tell us about spiritual truths.

In the old testament we don’t find as much parabolic teachings concerning the weather, but there is much to be said about the power of God concerning His control of the weather.  Here are a few examples:

Psalms 135:7

He causeth the vapours to ascend from the ends of the earth; he maketh lightnings for the rain; he bringeth the wind out of his treasuries.

Psalms 147:8
Who covereth the heaven with clouds, who prepareth rain for the earth, who maketh grass to grow upon the mountains

But there are some examples of weather being used to explain spiritual truths:
 
Proverbs 26:1
As snow in summer, and as rain in harvest, so honour is not seemly for a fool.

There are many other verses that use the weather as spiritual examples for us.  It is not surprising though for we are told in Psalms 19:1 The heavens declare the glory of God; and the firmament sheweth his handywork.  When we learn about weather, we can also be learning about the Lord. 

Drought and the Blizzards

On Thursday February 21st 2013 an Associated Press article written by Josh Funk went over the wires saying, "Climate experts say the drought affecting more than half of the nation will persist in the Great Plains and West through the spring and spread over more of California, Texas and Florida."

http://news.yahoo.com/drought-forecast-linger-spread-plains-west-171327123.html

Since that story went out, there have been two major blizzards in the plains Totaling over 3 feet of snow and major flooding rains in the southeast US with over 5 inches to even 10 inches of rain, with more on the way.  The western great lakes have seen snow totals approaching double their normal February as well as a couple rain events.   

In the article, it says we are at 56% drought in the US, which is actually down from 67% in the mid-summer last year.  This is an improvement.

Drought itself is a situation that builds upon itself.  When you have a dry period, it dries the ground moisture.  This reduces the amount of water available for further precipitation, which further dries ground moisture.  At the same time, the lack of cloud cover the available moisture produces increases temperatures in the region.  This also, in turn, reduces ground moisture further.

This month we have had a pattern shift in the weather.  This shift has set the stage for the two very large storms that have taken place in the Great Plains.  While some sit around and wonder what crazy stuff is going on to create these mega storms, and how these are disasters; in another sense, these storms are really a good thing.

What these storms are doing is replenishing the lost moisture from the drought period.  Sometimes these droughts are broken with a tropical system that gets stuck in the region brining huge rains.  This isn't always the best as lots of rain in short times creates flooding that washes away soils.  Having these snow storms is very beneficial.  The moisture contained in these snows will melt back into the ground, replenishing it with much needed moisture.

With increased moisture in the ground, we can have the reverse effects of the drought in place as greater moisture leads to greater rains.  Greater moisture will lead to more cloud cover and lower temperatures.  This could further help reduce the drought conditions, slowly returning the area to normalcy.  This in turn helps everything else, crops, cattle, food prices, and the economy.

While I would not say that these two events alone are enough to be a drought breaker, it could be enough to start reversing the trends.  It is worth watching.  I wonder if these events will be taken into consideration of the released spring forecast in the article that called for further drought.   “below-average precipitation is expected this spring in most Western states and the southeastern United States.", is the prediction from NOAA climatologist Dan Collins.  What we have seen in the last week is quite the opposite.  Of course spring has not really sprung yet.

Watch the drought shrink:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/6_week.gif

God's Weather, Blessing or Judgment?

 August 25^th, 1814, a tornado struck Washington DC.  It was a rather destructive, deadly, and violent tornado.  There was severe damage throughout the city, trees down, buildings and infrastructure destroyed.  It was a terrible disaster; or was it?

5 days previous, as part of an offensive in the war of 1812, the British landed warships in the Chesapeake Bay and marched on DC.  They overran the city and took it over.  From the White House, the British admiral ordered the city burned and it was set ablaze.   It looked as if he country was defeated, our capital had been captured and was being laid waste.  Surrender seemed imminent and we were to once again become British subjects, no longer an independent nation.  Then God stepped in.

The outer bands of a hurricane came ashore, one storm cell of which produced the violent tornado.  The tornado scattered the ranks of the soldiers, destroyed their weaponry, killed many of the army, and sent them fleeing for their lives out of DC.  As the hurricane spun off shore, 2 days of constant rain fell, putting out all of the fires the British had set.  The storm also severely damaged the ships they had arrived in.

When the American militia returned to retake the city, they found it abandoned, with no resistance.   God himself had single handedly defeated our enemies, and stopped their destruction.  This is just one incident where God has intervened in the events of nations.  There are many others as well. 

In the 148^th Psalm we get a little peak at God’s use of weather in His plan.  In verse 5 it says, Let them praise the name of the Lord! For he commanded and they were created.  Following are a list of things that were commanded and created.  In verse 8 we find, “fire and hail, snow and mist,
stormy wind fulfilling his word!”  So here we have that God indeed created weather to fulfill his word. 

Again we find this principle in the 37^th chapter of Job.  From verse 1 thru verse 12 we get a description of weather God has created, and clues to it’s function.  Verse 13 sums up again the principle of God’s use of weather, “Whether for correction or for his land or for love, he causes it to happen.” 

Most people consider bad weather merely as a punishment and judgment from God.  While it certainly can be, we see that there is far more accomplished in God’s use of weather.  We don’t have the mind of God, nor do we understand all of His ways. Isaiah 55:8 “For my thoughts are not your thoughts, neither are your ways my ways,” declares the Lord.  We don’t always see the bigger plan of God’s larger purpose.

So, we need to be careful when we as Christians run about declaring God’s judgment for a natural disaster(s).  There may be purposes going on that we do not understand.  The world will accuse us of wearing tin foil hats, decrying mystical conspiracies if we are spouting off continually with one sided messages of doom.  Seek the Lord for wisdom when disastrous weather occurs.  It could be judgment, but, there may be more to the story.